Geopolitics and Geoeconomic Monitor
Indonesian Institute for Foreign Affairs (IIFA) — UIII
(Beta ver 11.8)
Live Data
LIVE
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Live headlines matched from RSS feeds  ·  Refreshed:
Conflict intensity & Indonesia exposure matrix
ZoneIntensityProximityEconomic impactPolitical pressure
● ACTIVE CONFLICTS
Gaza & Red SeaCriticalRemoteHigh — freight, LNGHigh — OIC solidarity
Russia–UkraineHighRemoteMedium — food & fertilizerMedium — UNSC
Pakistan — AfghanistanHighRemoteMedium — energy routesHigh — Islamic solidarity
MyanmarHighRegionalLowHigh — ASEAN credibility
Hormuz & IranCriticalRegionalHigh — LNG & oil transitMedium
Thailand — CambodiaElevatedRegionalMedium — ASEAN tradeMedium — ASEAN unity
▶ ESCALATION WATCH
South China SeaRisingDirectHigh — Natuna, SLOCsMedium
China–TaiwanRisingRegionalMedium — semiconductorsHigh — US-China choice
■ REGIONAL MONITORING
Southeast AsiaMonitorRegionalHigh — trade & SLOCsHigh — leadership
South AsiaLatentRemoteLowLow
AfricaMediumRemoteLowLow
Pacific — AU, NZ, IslandsMonitorRegionalLow — indirectMedium — alignment

Headlines sourced from Google News via RSS — refreshed automatically each time this tab is opened.

IDR / USD
Live
IDR / CNY
Live
IDR / 100 JPY
Live
IDR / SGD
Live
Central Bank & Macro
US Federal Reserve
4.25–4.5%
Federal Funds Rate — held Dec 2025
FOMC Dec 2025: Rate held 4.25–4.5%
Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50% throughout 2025 after cutting 100bps in late 2024. Market pricing 1–2 cuts in 2026. Higher-for-longer posture weighing on IDR and EM capital flows.
Fed Open Market Committee →
Bank Indonesia
5.75%
BI Rate — Mar 2026 (monitor for cuts)
Differential vs Fed: +125bps
BI cut to support economic growth. IDR under pressure from strong USD. BI intervening via spot market and DNDF to stabilize rupiah.
Bank Indonesia →
PMI Manufacturing — Feb 2025 (S&P Global / ISM)
53.6
Indonesia
Expanding
50.8
China
Expanding
49.8
US ISM
Below 50
S&P Global (ID Feb 2025: 53.6). Caixin China (Feb 2025: 50.8). US ISM (Feb 2025: 49.8). PMI above 50 = expansion.
Stock Indices (Live)
IDX Composite
Jakarta
S&P 500
New York
FTSE 100
London
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
STI
Singapore

Indices via stooq.com. May reflect previous close outside market hours. Verify at Yahoo Finance →

Historical Trend Tracker
Asset:
Period:
Select asset and period above. Indicative historical approximation.
Key Commodities — Asia Pacific & ASEAN
Indonesia key exports (indicative)
Coal
~$132/T
Palm Oil
~MYR4,120
Nickel
~$16,850/T
Nat. Gas
~$3.42
Rubber
~$1.55/kg
Tin
~$26,800/T
Global benchmarks
Oil Crude
~$78/bbl
Gold
~$3,320/oz
Wheat
~$210/T
Fertilizer
~$380/T
Iron Ore
~$102/T
Copper
~$9,200/T
Top Trade Partners 2025
CountryTotal Trade (est.)Key exportsKey importsRisk
China~$138.5BCoal, nickel, palm oilElectronics, machinery, chemicalsTariff war risk
United States~$40.2BTextiles, rubber, palm oilMachinery, aircraft, soybeansTrade policy risk
Japan~$37.8BCoal, LNG, palm oilVehicles, machineryLow
India~$29.1BCoal, palm oil, copperSteel, chemicals, pharmaLow
South Korea~$25.0BCoal, LNG, nickelElectronics, steelLow

Exchange rates: Open Exchange Rates API (live). Indices: stooq.com + Yahoo Finance fallback. PMI: S&P Global / ISM Feb 2025. Commodities: indicative. Trade: BPS Indonesia provisional 2025 / WTO.

Indonesia Strategic Indicators 2025
Macro indicators 2025 (BPS Indonesia)
GDP Growth (Full Year 2025)5.11%
Inflation (Dec 2025, YoY)2.92%
Unemployment (Aug 2025)4.85%
Current Account (% GDP, 2025)-0.9%
Fiscal & financial resilience 2025
Forex Reserves (Dec 2025, BI)$151.2B
Debt-to-GDP (2025)40.1%
FDI Inflow 2025 (BKPM)$50.8B
Defense Budget FY2026 (% GDP)0.88%

Strategic indicators: BPS Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, BKPM, Kemenkeu 2025–2026.

Curated global diplomatic intelligence  ·  Last updated: March 2026
Indonesia Bilateral & Multilateral Activity
ID–CN
Prabowo–Xi Jinping bilateral — Beijing
BRI investment, Natuna EEZ, critical minerals MoU. China reaffirmed "comprehensive strategic partnership." Indonesia secured $10B+ in investment pledges across EV and battery sectors.
January 2025
ID–US
Sugiono — Rubio bilateral — Washington D.C.
Reaffirmed US-Indonesia strategic partnership. Defense cooperation, Indo-Pacific maritime security, South China Sea briefing. Rubio signaled sustained US-ASEAN engagement.
February 2025
ID–IN
Prabowo–Modi bilateral — New Delhi
Indonesia-India comprehensive strategic partnership elevated. ASEAN-India FTA, Quad spillover, defense procurement, digital infrastructure cooperation on agenda.
January 2025
ID–RU
Prabowo state visit — Moscow
Prabowo met Putin, drawing Western concern. Indonesia maintained free-active stance. Defense ties discussed including potential Sukhoi follow-up. Indonesia continues to abstain on Russia-related UNGA resolutions.
February 2025
ID–AU
Indonesia–Australia 2+2 Ministerial — Canberra
Foreign and defense ministers. Comprehensive Strategic Partnership reaffirmed. Joint maritime patrols, Timor Sea, AUKUS spillover, and Pacific engagement reviewed.
March 2025
Major Global Summits & Multilateral Processes
ASEAN
ASEAN Summit 2025 — Kuala Lumpur
Philippines as ASEAN Chair 2026 (rotating annually). Agenda: South China Sea COC progress, Myanmar continued crisis, ASEAN Indo-Pacific Framework, digital economy and supply chain resilience.
Mid-2026 (upcoming)
G20
G20 Summit 2026 — Canada
Canada holds G20 presidency 2026. Agenda: global economic resilience, clean energy transition, digital economy governance, development finance. Indonesia as full member.
2026 (upcoming)
D-8
D8 Organisation Summit — Cairo
8-nation Islamic economic bloc: Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan. Intra-D8 trade finance, de-dollarization, Gaza reconstruction fund, food security.
March 2025
JCPOA
US–Iran nuclear talks — Oman mediation
Indirect negotiations via Omani channel. IAEA access to Fordow and Natanz disputed. No JCPOA revival expected near-term. Iran uranium enrichment at 60% continues. Escalation risk if talks collapse.
Ongoing 2025
UN
Gaza ceasefire negotiations — Doha / Cairo
Qatar and Egypt mediating between Israel and Hamas. Phase 1 hostage-ceasefire deal under stress. Indonesia active in OIC and UN as advocate for Palestinian statehood. Direct trade with Israel suspended since 2024.
Ongoing 2025
UKR
Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks — US-mediated
Trump administration pushing for negotiated settlement. Ukraine resisting territorial concessions. NATO allies divided. Indonesia maintains neutrality, abstaining on key UNSC votes.
Ongoing 2025
International Organizations — Active Processes
OrganizationCurrent focus (2025–2026)Indonesia roleStatus
ASEANMyanmar humanitarian crisis, South China Sea COC, AEC digital frameworkDe facto leader, largest economyChair 2026: Philippines (rotating annually)
G20African debt relief, climate finance, digital taxationFull member — hosted Bali 2022Active — Canada 2026
OICGaza, Palestine statehood, Islamophobia, economic cooperationLargest Muslim-majority memberActive — Gaza emergency sessions
BRICS+De-dollarization, NDB, BRICS pay, trade settlementInvited 2024, accession pendingDecision expected 2025
RCEPTrade rules implementation, dispute resolution, services liberalizationFull member — largest ASEAN signatoryImplementing
UN Security CouncilGaza, Ukraine, Sudan, HaitiObserver (non-permanent 2019–20)Observer status
IPEFIndo-Pacific Economic Framework — trade pillarParticipating memberUnder negotiation
Quad (adjacent)Maritime security, clean energy, tech supply chainsNot a member — strategic observerWatching brief

Curated from: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Indonesia, ASEAN Secretariat, Reuters, Al Jazeera, The Diplomat, Council on Foreign Relations. Last curated: March 2026.

USGS · NASA FIRMS · NOAA · Smithsonian GVP  ·  Refreshed:
Live Satellite & Weather Map
Windy.com · ECMWF · Rain & thunder layer by default ·
Open fullscreen → NASA Worldview VIIRS → Zoom.Earth →
Weather Alerts — Live Weather
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ENSO — El Niño / La Niña Status
Current ENSO Status (NOAA CPC — 12 Mar 2026)
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What is ENSO? Measured in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4 region). Its effects reach Indonesia via the Walker Circulation — when the Pacific shifts, Indonesia’s rainfall regime shifts too. ONI above +0.5°C = El Niño; below -0.5°C = La Niña.
Impact on Indonesia
Earthquakes
Global M4.5+ (past 7 days)
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Indonesia Region M3.5+ (past 7 days)
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Volcano Activity
Indonesia Volcano Alert Levels (PVMBG/MAGMA Indonesia):
Level I — Normal (green): No eruption threat, routine monitoring  ·  Level II — Waspada (yellow): Elevated activity, restricted zone around crater  ·  Level III — Siaga (orange): Significant activity, evacuation of designated zones advised  ·  Level IV — Awas (red): MOST DANGEROUS — eruption imminent or occurring, mandatory evacuation within danger radius
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Active Fire Hotspots
NASA FIRMS VIIRS SNPP · 375m resolution · Updated within 3h of satellite pass
Active Hotspots (24h)
Indonesia VIIRS
High Confidence ⓘ
hotspots
Alert Level
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